Is a Food Shortage Coming to the Western Balkans?

In the wake of the international food crisis, many countries are paying more attention to food self-sufficiency to protect themselves from instability in the global food markets. Western Balkan region and the rest of the world are facing an array of challenges, including inflation and rising food prices. Recognizing the importance of producing sufficient food to cover a country's needs in circumstances of increasing risk of trade disruptions due to war or political tensions, this article aims to find the level of food self-sufficiency in the Western Balkan countries. The self-sufficiency ratio is calculated for different food groups and individual products over a 14-year period (2006-2019) based on the FAO data and calculation method. Also, using panel data, the impact of different factors-arable land, rural population, fertilizers efficiency, temperature change, precipitation, and GDP per capita change-on cereals self-sufficiency is estimated. Results showed that in the covered pre-crisis period, the Western Balkans achieved a satisfactory level of food self-sufficiency, suggesting that the region is ready to respond to future challenges. Four indicators positively and significantly affect cereal self-sufficiency: arable land, rural population, fertilizers efficiency and GDP per capita change, while one indicator-temperature change-had a negative and significant effect. This article can serve as a basis for post-crisis research on the topic.

Long term interaction between dietary patterns and disease incidence: evidence from serbia

The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between dietary pattern and incidence of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases in Serbia, a country which has experienced a significant shift in nutrition and lifestyle habits, guided by its particular historical background and its rapid transition to liberal economy. Data was collected from annual reports published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia and the Institute of Public Health. It provides a focus on the timeframe of 1997-2014, in order to capture any changing pattern after the year 2000, in which the process of complete trade liberalization started.The results have shown a striking growing trend in both disease incidence on the one hand and processed food items such as processed meat, fruit juices, chocolate and biscuits and on the other hand. Granger causality test suggests that there exists causality that goes beyond spurious relationship between the disease of blood and blood-forming organs and immune system disorders and average per capita consumption of fruit and vegetables, poultry, processed meat, chocolates and biscuits and fruit juices. Also, we find evidence of long-term relationship between fish consumption and endocrine, metabolic and digestive diseases(AU)

El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar la relación entre los patrones de dieta y la incidencia de las enfermedades no transmisibles relacionadas con la nutrición en Serbia, un país que ha experimentado un cambio significativo en los hábitos de nutrición y estilo de vida, guiado por sus antecedentes históricos particulares y su rápida transición hacia una economía liberal. Se recogieron datos de los informes anuales publicados por la Oficina de Estadística de la República de Serbia y el Instituto de Salud Pública. Se hizo foco en el período de 1997 a 2014, con el fin de poder detectar cualquier cambio en los patrones a partir del año 2000, cuando comenzó el proceso de liberalización total del comercio. Los resultados han mostrado llamativamente una tendencia creciente tanto en la incidencia de enfermedades como en la proliferación de alimentos procesados, tales como carne procesada, jugos de frutas, chocolate y galletas. La prueba de causalidad de Granger sugiere que existe una relación de causalidad que va más allá de la relación espuria entre las enfermedades hematológicas, las afecciones de los órganos hematopoyéticos y del sistema inmunológico y el consumo promedio per cápita de frutas y hortalizas, productos avícolas, carne procesada, chocolates, galletas y jugos de frutas. Parece evidente también la existencia de una relación a largo plazo entre la aparición de enfermedades endocrinas, metabólicas y digestivas y el consumo de pescado(AU)